AN ANALYSIS OF NEW ZEALAND’S CURRENT EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLANS
- BACKGROUND
It’s abundantly clear that anthropogenic global heating will increasingly dominate the global economy in coming decades. “The data from the past decade shows definitively that climate change is not a future problem,” said John Denton, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). Major productivity losses from extreme weather events are being felt in the here and now by the real economy.” https://iccwbo.org/news-publications/policies-reports/new-report-extreme-weather-events-cost-economy-2-trillion-over-the-last-decade
…the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.”
Source: https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/
A rapid shift to a low-carbon economy would be many times better for business and for citizens.. The climate crisis currently costs the global economy around US$16 million per HOUR. The economic damage ALREADY locked in is estimated to shrink the global economy by 19% by 2050. If we fail to act, the damage will rise exponentially:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240417131138.htm
https://thebulletin.org/2018/06/benefits-of-curbing-climate-change-far-outweigh-costs
https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/04/10/climate-inaction-likely-to-cost-billions-treasury/
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/political-short-termism-plagues-climate-action
We have a choice to make — keep pretending that we are on track, or show leadership. Leadership would demand unusual political courage; alas the adversarial nature of our parliamentary process favours short-termism and sound-bite politics. One possible way forward would be to convene a national citizens’ assembly to confront this existential crisis and reach some sort of consensus on genuine action.
2. NZ’S CURRENT EMISSIONS REDUCTION TRAJECTORY
Since 2006 our gross GHG emissions have begun to decline somewhat.
However they are still 14% higher than the 1990 baseline; meanwhile nett emissions have increased by 33% from the 1990 baseline. https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/GHG-inventory-2024-Snapshot.pdf, (p.7 fig 3) :
This graph shows no significant progress towards a low-carbon future.
The rate of reduction is far too slow to ensure a viable future climate for our children.
The GHG-inventory-2024-Snapshot document states that emissions from the energy sector (and road transport in particular) were 20% higher than in 1990 (p.9).
It’s good news that we’re seeing a reduction in road transport emissions via decreased petrol consumption (p.9); but the quoted increase in fuel-efficient cars is maxing out: thermodynamics means that further improvement in the efficiency of fossil-fuelled vehicles is going to be negligible.
It is therefore unfortunate that the current government has chosen to disfavour rail transport/rail-enabled Cook Strait ferries, and to actively oppose EV uptake by (a) removing subsidies, (b) failing to boost the national fast-charger network, and © applying road-user charges to light EVs and PHEVs. While all road users must pay their way, the RUC policy is skewed — damage to roads is known to increase roughly by the fourth power of vehicle weight, meaning that heavy diesel trucks which cause the real damage are being subsidised by private car owners trying to do the right thing. https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/603/RR-603-The-relationship-between-vehicle-axle-loadings-and-pavement-wear2.pdf
2a. REAL FACTORS BEHIND THE RECENT DROP IN EMISSIONS
The 2021–22 drop in emissions from the energy sector (p.9) was partly due to the closure of NZ’s only oil refinery. That means we are offshoring those emissions, which doesn’t help at all. During the same period, emissions from industrial processes decreased by 5% — not because of increased efficiency but because of a decrease in heavy industry (p.10)
2b. INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM
Meanwhile a significant contribution to global heating comes from the GHG emissions of international travel; yet they are, bizarrely, excluded from national NDCs to the Paris Agreement. A return flight AKL-LHR emits around 7 tonnes of CO2 per economy passenger (more, if non-carbon sources such as contrails and nitrogen oxides are included). This is unacceptable.
Per capita, the cruise-ship industry is even more GHG intensive and damaging to the climate.
Putative solutions such as biofuels or hydrogen are unrealistic at scale and in the required time-frame.
2c. CARBON OFFSETS AND CARBON TRADING
Offsetting is akin to an alcoholic paying someone else to give up booze. Schemes involving overseas planting are worse, as we have no control over the integrity of such programmes.
The ETS has short-term merit, especially for high emissions industries. However it cannot form part of a long-term solution for global heating. “In a report this week the Climate Change Commission took aim at the current ETS settings, saying it makes the country far too reliant on planting trees instead of making real cuts to emissions.” https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-you-need-to-know/488946/what-s-wrong-with-the-emissions-trading-scheme
We’ve seen a rural backlash as productive agricultural land has been taken over by plantations mainly of radiata. Globally, there is obviously a limit to this process; the world simply does not have enough unused land to offset more than a minor part of global emissions.
2d. EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLAN ANNOUNCEMENT 30.01.2025:
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/01/31/govt-pledges-emissions-cuts-of-as-little-as-1-in-new-paris-target
The further emissions reduction plans announced 30/01/2025 have been describes as ‘shockingly unambitious’:
3. CONCLUSION: NZ’s EMISSION REDUCTION PLANS ARE A FAILURE. WE’RE BETRAYING OUR KIDS.
Overall, our current per-capita annual GHG emissions are 15.1 tonnes CO2e, which is very high compared to many other developed nations, and far too high for a viable future climate.
The Climate Change Commission recently stated that the ERP2 is insufficient: it does NOT put us on a trajectory that will meet our targets. https://theconversation.com/nzs-climate-policies-are-no-longer-enough-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-heres-what-needs-to-happen-245829
Analyses by the Environmental Law Initiative and the Public Health Communications Centre agree with that conclusion:
https://www.eli.org.nz/updates/the-problems-with-the-governments-emissions-reduction-plan-proposal
https://www.phcc.org.nz/briefing/proposed-emissions-reduction-plan-weak-response-weak-target
The Environmental Law Initiative have specified a number of responses we need to see if we care about our future:
· Urgent economy-wide transformation should be the primary principle upon which New Zealand’s climate change response is based.
· Reputational and financial risks inform the Government’s policy and response.
· The Government should urgently reassess the policies underpinning ERP2 in order to ensure that emissions are actually being reduced, not increased.
· As a matter of priority, the Government should undertake a rigorous cost-benefit analysis underpinning the policy choices in ERP2.
· The Government must show much greater ambition and include policies that further reduce emissions below the 2023 modelled scenario, to guarantee that our emissions targets will be met, and to reduce the international mitigation financial liability.
· The Government should prioritise gross emissions reductions, in line with the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations and IPCC advice.
· The Government should publicly release the full analysis and advice given to the Minister on delivery risks.
· The Government should review its broader policy programme to align it towards meeting our second and third emissions budgets and the 2050 target The Government should demonstrate how it has considered and will Implement the Commission’s advice on legislative and policy alignment.
· The Government should follow the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations in relation to the NZ ETS.
· The Government should follow the Commission’s recommendations for agricultural emissions, to ensure that New Zealand farmers do not get left behind as international markets increasingly scrutinise environmental claims.
The 2015 Paris agreement was inevitably a political document; a compromise between what was politically possible and what the science demands of us. Furthermore, climatologists tell us that the pace of heating now appears to be higher than mid-range predictions back then.
It is quite clear that our mainstream political parties are choosing to betray our young people. As our flouting of planetary boundaries increasingly impacts the global economy, prosperity will fall. The bland reassurances uttered by politicians will sound ever more hollow, leading to a loss of faith in the democratic process. Citizens’ resentment could fall prey to the toxic appeal of populist politicians’ lies — a pathway to autocracy and ultimately fascism.
