CLIMATE ACTIVISM: WHAT WORKS BEST?
IF WE’RE NOT MAKING AN IMPACT ON WIDER PUBLIC OPINION, WE’RE WASTING OUR TIME
SUMMARY:
Keeping the world below 2oC above pre-industrial is now impossible; but giving up is not an option, as the outcome could be +4oC or more. Our kids will face a dire future, not just from global heating but from societal breakdown as prosperity fails and the blame-game starts .
Functionally, most citizens and politicians are still in denial. That has to change.
Climate activism has made some difference but not enough. We’re fragmented. We activists need to honestly, even painfully analyse our choices of action; we need outcomes not activity. This article evaluates our choices, and suggests that more teamwork and synergy needs to replace our current rather scattergun approach.
A coherent media & public awareness campaign is a vital part of effective future activism.
Introduction
If you’re reading this, you probably care about the climate crisis, and you probably want to help speed the global shift to a more sustainable future.
I’m writing this in Aotearoa/New Zealand — an affluent country with a high per-capita GHG footprint, but a bit player on the international scene. So are our emissions insignificant? No. If an affluent nation like us isn’t willing to set a good example and act as a global leader, then we can’t expect others to act.
Even in our small nation, there are dozens of activist groups focussing on climate and/or sustainability — Greenpeace, GenZero, School Strike for Climate (SS4C) , 350 Aotearoa, Extinction Rebellion (XR) , Aotearoa Climate Emergency (ACE), Forest and Bird Carbon Group, World Wide Fund for nature (WWF), Fossil Free Aoraki (FFA), Environment and Conservation Organisations (ECO), Our Climate Declaration, Seniors Climate Action Network (SCAN), … and many more.
We’re fragmented. That has some good aspects but also some seriously negative ones.
THE CHALLENGE
Let’s first take a hard look at the obstacles we face.
The situation is desperate. Globally we are pretty much out of time; even with COP pledges we probably have +2.4oC or more locked in and quite possibly +3oC or more by 2100. That essentially means mass disruption to the global economy, mass migration, unrest and regional conflict — and quite possibly an increasing number of failed states. That is the world our children will live in; yet many people are utterly desperate not to face up to this reality.
But without a rapid shift to a low-carbon economy, it’ll get far worse; +4oC or more is by no means out of the question; positive climate feedback loops are inherently hard to predict.
Low-carbon economy? Actually it’s more serious than that: we have to shift to a lower energy economy, as Earth lacks the resources for ‘green growth’. Just swapping your gas guzzler for an EV and sticking a solar panel on your roof is no answer; we’re heading for a lower median standard of living, with far less personal mobility and an end to long-distance holiday travel.
We COULD act on this if we worked together. But most of my friends and acquaintances, despite being well-informed and reasonably science literate, prefer to look the other way. Mention the climate crisis and they get fidgety and change the subject. People might be willing to recycle their takeaway coffee cups or plastic bags, but still insist on driving across the country for a weekend trip, and still plan international flights once COVID permits. A glance at any New Zealand holiday resort shows a phalanx of double-cab utes, jet skis, power boats, and big motorbikes. We’re just too damn selfish to sacrifice any of that for our kids’ sake.
Climate change is an identity crisis.
In most democracies, the adversarial parliamentary system rewards quick-witted answers and point-scoring, rather than mature reflection, teamwork, science literacy and genuine leadership.
Politicians won’t act until driven to action by public demand. So there’s the catch-22: the public aren’t pushing for action: hence politicians won’t act. Yet without strong leadership alerting us to the crisis, the public largely remain wilfully ignorant.
To break this impasse, we need to get to the point where frequent flying, gas-guzzling cars, and conspicuous consumption are seen for what they are — complicity in slow-motion genocide.
We need to shift the “Overton window*”, to (a) influence public awareness of the climate crisis and (b) increase the willingness to make sacrifices. Is that impossible? No. Our ancestors forced a king to sign the Magna Carta, ditched slavery, accepted the justice of women’s suffrage and ended apartheid. Anything’s possible. But of course it won’t be easy, as our lifestyle is the target. The only valid comparison is the mass mobilisation of national resources required during war.
(*Overton: The range of policy possibilities is determined by the range of options that are politically acceptable to mainstream voters. This range of politically acceptable outcomes changes over time, but at any given moment, only policy options that fall within the Overton Window have any hope of becoming reality.)
So there’s the key. People need to understand that a high GHG footprint amounts to child abuse.
How many of us actually live within a sustainable ecological footprint? Most of us are climate hypocrites; some more than others of course.
But we MIGHT act for our kids’ sake.
SO WHAT TO DO?
How do we get that message across, especially when politicians make a living by promoting delusional optimism, and the media largely look the other way — especially the commercial media who make a living by commodifying news, and whose revenue stream is a prime booster of consumerism. We’re pushing sh#t uphill, n’est ce pas?
The problem with the CEE is that it demands a radical downsizing of our ecological footprint, which flies in the face of the predominant world religion: endless GDP growth and its corollaries: the glossy-mag lifestyle for all, with lots of flying holidays, consumer durables and of course a big fat gas-guzzler.
Climate activists have raised the alarm - but we’re still not getting real traction. We’re still a tiny minority; While polls show that most people accept the science at an intellectual level, few members of the public seem ready to make any genuine lifestyle changes in order to give their kids a decent chance of surviving.
We are overloaded with information, emails, links, movies, invites to workshops, seminars , online petitions, and appeals for help from other activist groups and NGOs. Enough! It’s not activity we need, it’s outcomes!
I don’t want to end up as part of a tiny group of alternative-lifestylers sitting round in circles exchanging wise remarks about the ills of the world; We need effective government policy driven by popular demand.
We demand honesty from our leaders; perhaps it’s time for us, too, to take a brutally honest look at what we are doing — and why.
WHAT ARE OUR OWN UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS?
As an example: there is a meme going around that any movement that gets 3.5% of the public onside will go on to succeed. I find that hard to believe; I think it’s based on inappropriate comparisons with previous campaign issues.
Another example: Some green advocates, especially those with spiritual beliefs, pin their faith on the fundamental goodness of human nature. Once people understand the crisis, their kindness will spring forth and all will be well.
Will it?
A corollary is that exploitation is the fault of others — corporates, colonisers, other nations; always someone else — never us. This belief system totally ignores our fundamentally animal and tribal instincts, and tends to romanticise pre-industrial societies. Perhaps it results from having lived a very protected life, not having studied history, or perhaps from a lack of self-analysis. History, alas, shows that complex crises tend to beget a desire for simple answers. That desire boosts the appeal of ‘strong man’ leaders — hence autocracy and repression. Current events seem to be bearing out that rather dismal reality.
Are the assumptions above entirely valid? Are they useful? What other hidden assumptions do we make?
Another issue we need to resolve is the balance between (a) warning about the existential urgency of the climate crisis and (b) offering positive news. Setting aside our own wishes, what works best? This is complex too. As most citizens are still effectively in denial — still unwilling to take a hit for their kids’ sake — this is something we need to ponder.
FORGET ACTIONS, WE NEED OUTCOMES.
Doing something because it makes us feel good is not a valid reason.
On its own, no one mode of action is enough.
I’m not trying to be negative or destructive; we all know what a massive mountain we need to climb, and we’re all just trying to do our best in a critical and unprecedented global crisis. But perhaps we could do better. I don’t pretend to have any answers but IMO we need much better teamwork with e.g. lobbying and letter-writing timed to support protest.
Amplifying the last point: do we highlight the crisis or do we highlight solutions? Frighten people or encourage them? My own view is that pessimism and optimism are both irrelevant — we just need the truth. It just happens to be the case that the truth is rather grim. I think that facing a challenge potentially brings out the best in most people. If you had advance warning about an approaching hurricane, would you warn people to act? Or would you reassure them that very few people will actually die, and that people who have good strong houses will be just fine? After Dunkirk, did Churchill tell a reeling Britain “It’s all gonna be OK eventually folks, we’ve issued lots of pointed sticks to the home guard”? No. he offered them nothing but blood, sweat and tears. And they responded.
It is certainly important to amplify and celebrate successes. But focussing only on the positive seems too much like the staff on the Titanic telling passengers not to worry, the ship is unsinkable; or police trumpeting their resolution rates while far too many people are still getting beaten up or burgled. Large sections of the commercial media and just about all politicians are deliberately downplaying the urgency of the climate & ecological emergency; I doubt we will get any serious public buy-in until people realize that their kids’ future and the entire global economy depends 100% on our willingness to make some sacrifices now. Frankly, if people can only respond to good news, then humans deserve to become extinct.
“being a constructive pessimist requires the bravery to face the truth undiluted, in all of its nakedness. It required building the resilience to continue against all odds, despite what you know. Being a destructive optimist simply requires cowardly denial…” George Tseraklides
“The high sentiments always win in the end. The leaders who offer blood, sweat and tears always get more out of their followers than those who offer safety and a good time. When it comes to the pinch, human beings are heroic.” George Orwell
Optimistic vs. pessimistic endings in climate change appeals: The findings of three online experiments presented in this paper suggest that climate change appeals with pessimistic affective endings increase risk perception (Studies 1 and 2) and outcome efficacy (Study 3) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00574-z
SO WHERE TO FROM HERE?
OK, criticism is easy — so how about some solutions?
The central thesis of this article: if we’re not making an impact on wider public opinion, we’re wasting our time. And there’s no time left to waste. If we are to have any significant impact, we need new ideas; failing that, we need better tactics while using our existing ideas.
Some suggestions below; it’s very likely that you may have other suggestions. Let’s hear them please.
1. More media, public and political engagement.
Cooperate to develop a systematic media engagement plan.
a. Join letter-writing campaigns to mainstream media. The UK based “media tell the truth” group, an ally of XR UK, has made a very significant difference to climate coverage by the BBC and other news outlets by persistent lobbying. It works!
b. Join us in writing letters to newspapers and magazines. It’s hard to divine the editorial policy of any media outfit, but many of our 350 Christchurch letters DO get printed; print media readership is still high. I’ve been thanked by neighbours, acquaintances, a senior local government councillor and local reforestation activists for my own work in this area.
c. Systematic lobbying of political parties. Once again, teamwork is the key. Let’s shame them into facing reality.
d. Ditch your distain for/fear of social media. Work together with other activists to make a very strong point on key discussions on the comment sections, FB pages or twitter feeds of media outfits and political parties. Comments do matter. (see references list below)
2. Support the SS4C movement. The more well-informed and caring among our young people know very well what future we are saddling them with; their pressure makes a difference. COVID currently makes mass protest difficult; that just means more ingenuity is required. Support depends on what they want, but it could include more than just attending their events — it might include coordinating media impact before, during and after SS4C events, it could mean assisting them with letter writing and lobbying, it could be financial support, or marshalling at events.
Similar media campaigns should support other CEE protest action.
3. Join LCANZI (Lawyers for Climate Action) as an associate member ($20) https://www.lawyersforclimateaction.nz/membership-1 - or the equivalent in your country. Write to them urging an intensification of their legal action.
4. Never give up. We may fail; even if NZ makes the shift, major nations may not follow. We may have +2.4oC or more locked in already; that’s a disaster. But +4oC is far worse — and it could go beyond that.
Polling shows that a clear majority of citizens across many nations are seriously concerned about climate disruption. All we have to do is convert that concern into a willingness to cut consumerism. Sooner or later we might actually succeed!
“We live in capitalism. Its power seems inescapable. So did the divine right of kings. Any human power can be resisted and changed by human beings.”
Ursula Le Guin
If all the individuals who said “There’s nothing one person can do” got together and did something, we might get somewhere. That goes for institutions, communities, and nations too.
SELECTED REFERENCES: (key references in bold type)
COMMENTS MATTER. MASS MOBILISATION REQUIRED. DENIAL AND APATHY — HOW TO COUNTER IT
1. Social norms important: they influence willingness to protect the climate
https://phys.org/news/2021-07-social-norms-willingness-climate.html
2. Your comments do matter
3. Your comments matter- countering misinformation
https://www.desmogblog.com/2021/03/19/social-media-slow-spread-fake-news-misinformation-study
4. behaviour, motivating change
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6417/889
5. The power of truth .
https://medium.com/@margaretkleinsalamon/the-transformative-power-of-climate-truth-6e5622ce84fe
6. Public opinion: Campaigners should focus their attention on persuading the population about the urgency of climate action.
https://phys.org/news/2021-05-opinion-climate-affects-policy.html
7. How to change your parents’ minds on climate change
8. Polarisation & communication
https://phys.org/news/2020-03-polarization-climate-news-hoax.html
9. Countering the echo chamber effect:
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/39/9714
10. Responsible media
https://coveringclimatenow.org/partners/partner-list
11. Optimistic vs pessimistic messaging :
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00574-z
12. Do deniers really believe their crap?
https://mailchi.mp/coveringclimatenow/climate-deniers-journalists-responsibility-the-climate-beat
13. denial not about science
14. denier psychology
15. denier motivation
16. denier politics
17. conspiracists
18. types of denial
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-climate-denialism.html
19. The psychology of procrastinating on climate change
20. concerted denial campaign
21. Mass mobilisation needed
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-massive-scale-mobilization-climate-scientists.html
22. Protest needed
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/1/20/what-germanys-climate-movement-got-right-breaking-rules
23. Toxic masculinity
24. Why our Ute culture will eat our climate strategy for breakfast
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/why-our-ute-culture-will-eat-our
25. “Humanity is well on track to see an absolutely devastating temperature increase of more than 3oC by the end of the century…”
“… 20 years of climate solutionism that has changed little to nothing beside filling the pockets of the wealthy. In fact, these words are used to obscure the climate crisis in an act of global gaslighting of epic proportions”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/1/25/green-gaslighting-the-new-face-of-climate-denialism
26. individual actions
https://www.earthday.org/campaign/act-on-climate-change
POLLING AND PUBLIC OPINION
27. public underestimate CEE
28. UK opinion
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/climate-change-poll-pandemic-concern-b1963343.html
29. UK public
https://phys.org/news/2020-03-biggest-shift-british-attitude-climate.html
30. UK views
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll
31. Polling and misinformation
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-climate-misinformation-people-ways-combat.html
32. Public call
33. Global opinion
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55802902
34. US views
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-majority-adults-climate-important-issue.html
35. US views
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-november-2016/
36. 2019 horizon poll NZ
https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/541/public-conc
37. NZ Apathy
38. NZ public opinion
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm
39. Multi-nation poll
NO GREEN GROWTH: EARTHS RESOURCES ARE LIMITED. EXPECT A DOWNSHIFT. Potential for economic collapse, mass migration, conflict.
40. why is humanity not changing?
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6420/1242
41. get ready for energy downshift
42. expect declining GDP
https://www.clubofrome.org/impact-hubs/reframing-economics/prospects-for-a-world-of-declining-gdp
43. steady state economy not enough
https://steadystate.org/a-steady-state-economy-is-for-the-birds
44. CEE could cause systemic collapse: scientists
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-multiple-eco-crises-trigger-collapse-scientists.html
45. humans over-using natural resources
https://phys.org/news/2021-11-nations-overusing-natural-resources-faster.html
46. humans over-using natural resources
47. people and the planet
https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/people-planet/report/
48. Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6357/1242
49. economy is an energy system, not a financial one
‘The greatest single error made by conventional economics is the assumption that, if we understand money, we also understand the economy. ‘
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/06/23/203-surplus-energy-economics/
50. ‘Growth has flagged for reasons which have little or nothing to do with money, and everything to do with the energy dynamic which really determines prosperity.’
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/09/09/210-as-the-window-narrows/
51. prosperity devastates nature
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55893696
52. future of 1 -3 billion humans at risk:
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
53. 3 billion people could live in places as hot as the Sahara by 2070 unless we tackle climate change
54. likelihood of societal collapse
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/mit-1972-prediction-societal-collapse-b1884673.html
55. likelihood of societal collapse
56. economic collapse
57. environmental collapse
https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/age-of-environmental-breakdown
58. environmental collapse
59. USA’s Directorate of National Intelligence report “Global Trends 2040”. Looking to the 2030s and 2040s, it sees a world ravaged by climate change, which will disrupt food supplies, result in the hoarding of food and a global famine that will result in widespread civil unrest and propel mass migration.
p. 118 et seq: “A wave of unrest spreads across the globe, protesting governments’ inability to meet basic human needs and bringing down leaders and regimes.”
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf
CLIMATE SCIENCE AND TEMPERATURE RISE; POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAPPING TIPPING POINTS: (a very brief list.)
60. +2oC already baked in:
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-climate-goals.html
61. current pledges = +2.7oC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/09/17/un-climate-2030-biden
62. tipping points
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6421/1379
63. tipping points
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/601/2021/
64. ‘11,000 scientists’ warning: nearing or have already crossed tipping points
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biab079/6325731
65. tipping points
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-scientists.html
66. tipping points
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-comfort.html
67. sea level
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-sea-level-cards-trends.html
68. sea level rise underestimated
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-antarctic-ice-sheet-sea-higher-thought.html
69. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
