I suspect this is a realistic assessment. Our political systems and our mainstream media are totally locked in to a belief in BaU: the assumption of endless growth leading to the glossy-magazine lifestyle for all. Just about everyone I know is in total denial - any mention of climate change makes people get fidgety and strangely eager to change the subject. The mass migration we can expect from vulnerable regions is going to be a source of major conflict, which will in turn simply intensify the crisis.

No surrender though: an eventual global mean temperature rise of +2C will be disastrous, but +4C would be utterly catastrophic. We have to keep pushing for change, knowing very well that we are likely to fail. What an extraordinary time to be alive.