PLANETARY OVERSHOOT and THE THREAT OF FASCISM
Humanity is past peak prosperity and there’s no going back. Human history suggests a likely future scenario.
No species is exempt from the consequences of exceeding its ecological niche — not even Homo sapiens. Of the various ways in which we have flouted planetary boundaries(1,2) , climate disruption is the one likely to cause the most human misery in coming decades.
Despite endless international conferences and discussions, global GHG emissions are still rising.(3) The likely outcome will be a disastrous global mean temperature rise of at least +2.7oC in the lifetime of today’s young people(4,5), with a small but non-trivial risk that it could exceed +3.5oC.(6) That would be catastrophic.
There is still a chance we could bend this trajectory downward; but developed nations seem unwilling to accept the constraints or the lifestyle limitations needed to achieve that.
What if we fail? In the lifetime of today’s young people, we are likely to see around a billion deaths from climate disruption(7,8) and up to 40% of the global population — several billion people — will be exposed to heat and humidity beyond human endurance.(9–16) The result will be mass migration(17–22) and conflict.(22–26)
WE COULD FIX THIS, BUT….
Rarely does any of this surface in the mainstream media or in public discourse. Collectively we seem determined to look the other way. International polling shows that a majority of citizens claim to be concerned about the climate crisis, but that awareness is not translating into action. Most people I know see no reason to get politically involved. Nor do they link their own discretionary spending or holiday flying to the slow-motion genocide we’re seeing as global temperatures rise; it’s always somebody else’s fault. Functionally, we’re still in denial — trapped in a negative feedback cycle of public apathy & fatalism, blame-deflection, media down-playing, and political cowardice.(27,28)
THE IMPACT OF OVERSHOOT IS HERE, NOW.
People are already dying; one estimate puts excess deaths at five million in 2021 due to extreme temperatures caused by anthropogenic global heating, (29) a figure that excludes indirect deaths from adverse weather events such as hurricanes and flooding. Farm outputs are suffering(30–33), and the cost of infrastructure damage is accelerating. As I write this, global supply chains and commodity prices are impacted because unprecedented prolonged drought means the Panama Canal is unable to handle normal ship traffic. Global heating is ramping up the economic cost of flooding, storms, coastal inundation and heatwaves; one estimate puts current economic damage of climate disruption at 38 trillion US dollars annually across the world.(34)
Do politicians understand the exponential function? I hope so, because unless we shift rapidly to a low-carbon economy that figure for economic damage is about skyrocket.
A DOSE OF REALITY: POST-PROSPERITY
Nothing of any value can be created or manufactured without the use of energy. It follows that the global economy is based not on finance, but on energy and the resources it unlocks. Nobody ‘creates’ wealth; we just sequester natural resources for our use during our lifetime.
The industrial revolution, culminating in the post-WW2 prosperity boom, was an energy revolution. It relied on the availability and energy-density of fossil fuels. Barring the unlikely advent of safe, commercially viable nuclear fusion or supernatural intervention, that boom is now over.
Why?
1. Diminishing EROI (energy return on investment). We’ve used up the cheapest sources of fossil fuels.
2. We’ve already exploited the most accessible sources of key minerals, including vital fertilisers such as phosphate.
3. The rising cost of climate damage, as mentioned above. The impact already locked-in is predicted to shrink the global economy by around 19 % by 2050(34). If we don’t shift rapidly to a low-carbon economy, that damage will accelerate.
4. Our flouting of other boundaries includes issues such as overfishing, desertification, urban sprawl onto valuable arable land, and water shortages(2).
These issues are complex, interlinked, and exacerbated by population growth. Together they underscore the reality that the global economy depends on a thriving biosphere.
NO MORE MAGICAL THINKING. PLEASE.
Politicians are supposed to plan for the future; it’s what we pay them for. In reality, they make a living by selling optimism. When climate and related issues do come up, politicians usually reassure us with promises of a smooth transition to a green economy, based around investment in wind and solar energy, battery storage and related ‘sustainable’ technologies.
All of those technologies, and more, will certainly be needed. But free-market policies will not deliver that transition — certainly not in the short time we have available. More fundamentally, Earth lacks the resources — specifically strategic minerals — needed to maintain our lifestyle in a sustainable future economy. (35–43) “…it’s not only China that will need to mine and process minerals needed for the green economy. The UN says that if the world is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, their use must increase six-fold by 2040”. (36) That’s clearly not going to happen.
Conventional economists, bankers, politicians and political pundits squander their time and intellectual ability minutely analysing productivity, GDP, debt-to-asset ratios, investor confidence, trade agreements, policy settings and the actions of central banks. They rarely mention the underlying drivers of the global economy: access to energy and the physical resources it unlocks. They remind me irresistibly of the 17th century Archbishop Ussher, who used his considerable intellect to calculate from biblical sources that the world began at 6 pm on 22 October 4004 BC. My point: no analysis is valid unless it starts from valid, science-based premises. All their number-crunching and market analysis is simply barking up the wrong tree, in the wrong forest, on the wrong continent. There are comically irresistible parallels here with phlogiston theory in 18th century proto-chemistry, or the Earth-centric universe of Ptolemy’s cosmology; both had some limited predictive power but were increasingly inadequate when more information became available. Finally they were seen to be ludicrous.
We’ve grown up believing that wealth is a product of hard work, that entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of the economy, and that ‘a rising tide floats all boats’. But we live on a finite planet, and the economic tide is no longer rising but falling. No human has the right to sequester and consume more than their share of finite resources. There’s nothing wrong with the entrepreneurial spirit; but we need to stop seeing rich-listers as captains of industry, heroes, or role-models: their sequestration of Earth’s finite resources is parasitic and anti-life. They care nothing for you or I. And recent history shows that their mantra — that trickle-down will see the rest of us right — is a self-serving fiction. (44–46)
If we want a viable future climate, we need to get our annual per capita greenhouse gas footprint below around 2.3 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (47). In developed nations it’s currently several times higher than that, with the richest 1% fouling the atmosphere faster than the poorest 66% of the world’s population. (48,49)
The task of government, now, must be to maximise citizens’ well-being within realistic planetary boundaries. A rational response would involve honest consultation via citizens’ assemblies and based on science-literacy.
What we grandly call the global economy is merely a self-serving name for the ecological niche of a primate with the cheek to call itself Homo “sapiens”. The laws of physics care nothing for human aspirations, theories or delusions.
So while business cyclicality will no doubt continue, the trend is downhill from here,(50) even if we manage to shift away from fossil fuels.
POST-PROSPERITY INFLATION, DECLINING SERVICES, and the cost of climate disruption.
Over the next 2–3 decades, the impact of climate breakdown will likely hit hardest in tropical Africa, Central and South America, the Middle East and much of Asia. As just one example: the impact of global heating on Himalayan glaciers is already threatening water supplies and farming viability for hundreds of millions of people.(51–53) China too is not immune; its heartlands are extremely vulnerable to climatic extremes.(54)
Those of us lucky enough to live in temperate regions may be somewhat cushioned for a while — but we’ll still experience the impact of adverse weather events and sea-level rise on insurance costs, farm incomes, and infrastructure repairs, along with supply-chain issues and accelerating inflation.(55,56) Our trading partners in more vulnerable regions — including China — will find themselves increasingly unable or unwilling to buy our exports, or support our tourism industries.(57–61)
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, CITIZEN RESENTMENT, AND THE BLAME GAME
Constructing a viable future economy means accepting the limits to growth. Like it or not, we’re about to get poorer. Shifting to a low-carbon economy is going to cost us; but failure will cost a lot more. We can either accept that reality, and cooperate for our kids’ sake - or we can fight over it.
When governments do show the rare courage needed to implement policies aimed at reducing environmental harm, there is often a backlash.(62,63) On the whole however, rather than facing up to the harsh reality of planetary boundaries, politicians are still peddling the pied-piper fantasy of endless GDP growth leading to nirvana — the glossy-magazine lifestyle for all.
Their reassurances and delusions are starting to sound hollow. In real terms, the global economy is shrinking. Most people are already experiencing increasingly unaffordable housing, food and fuel costs, rapidly rising insurance premiums, growing student debt, declining access to health services, longer wait-times in hospital emergency departments, and sharp rises in council taxes. Government austerity measures are already increasing unemployment and causing infrastructure to fail more frequently. The rise in extreme weather will of course accelerate infrastructure damage.
Inevitably, the gap between myth and reality is causing rising resentment and fuelling a tendency to lash out at scapegoats: dole-bludgers, ‘bottom-feeders’, solo parents, tax evasion, a bloated civil service, inefficient local government, greedy bankers, profiteering corporations, government subsidies, ethnic minorities, immigrants taking our jobs, and more. At best these campaigns are simplistic. More often they are irrational and based on prejudice and dogma rather than evidence. Almost always, they miss the central underlying factor: we’re past peak-prosperity.
Come election time, disgruntled voters often focus their discontent on the incumbent government; increasingly it seems that governments get voted out rather than voted in. Not only does this blame-game fail to address the central problem; it encourages distrust, polarisation, societal division and political volatility. Physical attacks on politicians are nothing new, but the number does appear to be increasing.(64–67) As governance becomes harder, the toll on politicians’ wellbeing increases.(68)
Adding to our disquiet at falling living standards is migration. As the climate crisis bites ever deeper, the current tide of economic migrants into the USA and Europe will soon become an unstoppable flood(17–26), further raising resentment and ethnic tensions.
RETREAT FROM RATIONALITY
History suggests that periods of uncertainty and anxiety provide a rich spawning-ground for rumour, distrust, scapegoating and conspiratorial thinking. In our post-prosperity world, unease, anxiety and concern for the future are certainly on the increase.(69–74) The challenge of living within planetary boundaries demands unprecedented global cooperation, compassion, science literacy, critical thinking and long-term planning; instead, we’re witnessing rationality in retreat.(75–79)
Carl Sagan’s 1995 book the Demon-Haunted World warned of a future where people are increasingly tempted to fall for conspiracy theories and lose the ability to think critically, so are unable or unwilling to distinguish between information and disinformation. We seem to have reached that point.(80) Social media of course provide fertile soil for the growth of misinformation, reinforcement of prejudice, and societal polarisation; but beneath all that I strongly suspect the primary cause is our unease at declining prosperity, and a growing sense that we inhabit a rudderless society where human values count for little, and only company balance sheets seem to matter.
We’re falling for simplistic, one-dimensional thinking, and losing the ability to weigh up conflicting evidence and examine multiple sources of information. How else can we account for the current rash of conspiracy theories? How else can we account for the bizarre and alarming popularity of a narcissist, science-denier and serial liar such as Trump? And how else can we account for the way that his supporters and others try to shout down the global science community who have been warning for decades about global heating, our unwillingness to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and the resulting genocidal trajectory?
RESENTMENT, AUTOCRACY, FASCISM
A rudderless society crying out for strong leadership is a happy hunting-ground for populists in the Trump mould. Their seductively shallow ‘solutions’ appeal to the desire for a return to certainty, to the good old days of economic security, and to a father figure, a fuhrer, who will do our thinking for us.(81–83)
No matter that such populists tend to be narcissists and morally dubious; or that they are frequently beholden to corporate backers(84) whose main aim is to boost their own wealth and influence. No matter that history shows how swiftly populists can become autocrats once in power. No matter that they typically increase inequality and poverty by boosting deregulation and the dismantling of social security and environmental controls. No matter that they damage democracy by cracking down on diversity and dissent. No matter that — by pandering to polluting industries — they accelerate ecological overshoot and further damage the economy. When people feel insecure and anxious, it’s all too easy for critical thinking and compassion to be drowned out by the cult of leadership and the promise of salvation.
Some nations and some segments of society appear to be more resistant than others to populist rabble-rousing, scapegoating, and hate-mongering, and to the threats of violence that often accompany it. But complacency would be unwise. As I write this, the far-right is resurgent in European politics; Farage in Britain is openly racist; and anti-immigrant, anti-minority sentiments are gaining popularity in a number of countries. Nations such as North Korea, China, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been undemocratic. But that still leaves multiple examples of recently-elected near-autocrats including Orban, Modi, Erdogan, Milei, Bolsonaro, Duterte and Al Sisi.
The threat would be less worrying if the 4th estate were acting as a genuine democratic safeguard. But much of what passes for a free press in the democratic world is controlled by moguls such as Murdoch, who appear to value profit above genuine journalism.
The rise of Franco, Mussolini, and Hitler in 1930’s Europe should be a salutary lesson: from Trumpism, it’s but a short step to autocracy and outright fascism.(85–92)
WHAT CAN WE DO?
The answer — if there is one — lies in ending complacency. That means:
* encouraging wider participation in open democracy. Citizens’ assemblies appear to be a constructive model for this.
* educating the public to understand and accept the reality of planetary boundaries, and
* encouraging people to see that their kids’ future depends on voluntary economic constraint, especially by the wealthiest 10% of humanity.
If that process of education and democratisation fails, then the best we can hope for is to document the rise of corporate control, the likely spread of fascism, and quite possibly the collapse of our civilisation. Anyone who thinks this is exaggeration is invited to read the scenarios presented in the March 2021 report by the U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence, entitled “Global Trends 2040”. (24,25) (p. 118 et seq: “A wave of unrest spreads across the globe, protesting governments’ inability to meet basic human needs and bringing down leaders and regimes.”)
REFERENCES
planetary boundaries flouted:
1. https://phys.org/news/2023-09-planetary-boundaries-exceeded.html
2. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html
GHGs still rising:
3. https://phys.org/news/2024-04-carbon-dioxide-methane-air-year.html
projected temperature rise:
4. https://phys.org/news/2023-11-earth-29c-current-climate-pledges.html
5. https://phys.org/news/2022-09-g7-corporate-climate-27c-analysis.html
6. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes.
deaths from climate disruption:
7. https://phys.org/news/2023-08-climate-changing-human-billion-deaths-century.html
8. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg9297
unliveable heat/humidity:
11. https://phys.org/news/2024-04-human-climate-deadly-sahel.html
12. https://phys.org/news/2023-05-earth-unlivable-tide.html
13. https://news-archive.exeter.ac.uk/homepage/title_794044_en.html
15. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838
mass migration:
18. https://phys.org/news/2023-02-small-temperature-large-scale-migration.html
21. https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-climate-crisis-migration-and-refugees/
potential for conflict:
24. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf
25. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf
functional denial, inaction:
27. https://newptc75.medium.com/the-enigma-of-climate-inaction-2e583163e0a0
current annual excess deaths due to heat:
impact on farm production:
31. https://phys.org/news/2023-09-quarter-greek-farm-experts.html
32. https://phys.org/news/2024-06-central-china-farmers-crop-failures.html
33. https://www.bbc.com/weather/articles/cy63gg6zge5o
current & predicted economic damage:
34. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240417131138.htm
resource limitations and sustainability:
35. “The fundamental problem all these countries face is as they deindustrialise and experience slower growth they cannot generate the resources to meet the expectations of their people, he says. And Heath says China, once an engine of global growth, is no exception.”
36. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68896707
38. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01283-y
39. https://phys.org/news/2022-04-halve-energy-climate-catastrophe.html
40. https://techxplore.com/news/2024-06-transitioning-renewable-energy-entail-decline.html
41. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202307.0628/v1
42. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/cheap-abundant-energy-is-the-problem-not-the-solution
failure of the trickle-down hypothesis :
44. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/12/supply-side-economics-scam
45. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tax-cuts-rich-50-years-no-trickle-down/
46. https://academic.oup.com/ser/article/20/2/539/6500315
gross inequality and greenhouse gas emissions:
47. https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/climate-equality-a-planet-for-the-99-621551/
48. https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-set-be-30-times-15degc-limit-2030
economic trend downhill from here:
50. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2022/11/22/243-the-great-inflexion/
Himalayan glacier retreat and water supplies in Asia
52. https://phys.org/news/2022-08-irreversible-declines-freshwater-storage-asia.html
53. https://e360.yale.edu/features/himalayas-glaciers-climate-change
impact on inflation :
56. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x
China post-prosperity:
57. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66636403
58. https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-stalling-economy-puts-world-141731036.html
60. https://www.ft.com/content/b2e0ad77-3521-4da9-8120-1f0c1fdd98f8
backlash against green policies:
63. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nneg6252eo
attacks on politicians:
64. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/us/politics/politician-death-threats.html
65. https://www.ft.com/content/b9dae520-1713-4cc0-b205-3a5f46847f2a
66. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-politics-violence-attacks-election/
67. https://www.dw.com/en/attacks-on-politicians-in-germany-on-the-rise/a-69009756
68. https://newptc75.medium.com/politicians-mental-health-f2b4aadf868e
anxiety, no kids:
69. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/11/style/economic-anxiety-millennials.html
72. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/some-young-adults-are-worried-about-having-kids/
73. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63516055
societal change & loss of control as triggers for irrational beliefs
75. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0146167202281009
76. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167282084021
77. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14789299221109449
78. https://phys.org/news/2024-06-polarization-perception-play-important-roles.html
80. “The empirical spirit on which the Western democratic societies were founded is currently under attack, and not just by such traditional adversaries as religious fundamentalists and devotees of the occult….
…In such a climate it may be worth affirming that science really is progressive and cumulative…Science is not perfect, but neither is it just one more sounding board for human folly.”
Timothy Ferris “The Whole Shebang”, 1997
personality traits that attract people to authoritarian leaders:
81. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-rsquo-s-appeal-what-psychology-tells-us/
“…a desire to rediscover past greatness, a fear of social disorder and the longing for a strong leader.” A penetrating analysis of Trump’s public performances and the way he appeals to those fears.
83. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/11/1015120444/study-looks-at-what-motivates-trump-supporters
support by industrialists for autocrats — Hitler, Trump:
current rise in fascism:
85. https://www.theindiaforum.in/society/why-fascism-rise-world-over
86. https://truthout.org/articles/fascism-is-rising-but-it-does-not-have-to-be-our-future/
87. https://steadystate.org/democracy-trumped-at-the-limits-to-growth
89. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule
91. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/11/far-right-leaders-economy-voters
92. https://open.substack.com/pub/thomhartmann/p/echoes-of-history-how-fascism-quietly-11a
