Very useful analysis, thank you. Will share! I've been trying to construct something similar as a way of analysing the assumptions that determine climate activists' choices of action - NVDA or lobbying? Personal conversations with friends, or meetings with politicians? Protests or letters to the papers? Planting trees or cutting flights? It might be wise to admit that none of us really knows what works best, and that working together might be better than any one mode. As for giving up, no thanks: a +2.5C future is less bad than +4C.